Same Old Panic is the Brand New Normal

It is beginning to seem official now, THE RECESSION IS OVER!!!

Finance Industry insiders are saying it! (Baron's Article)

On Friday, the government reports that the unemployment rate drops from 9.5 to 9.4%! (Washington Post;

Then yesterday Reuters got specific by citing a number of opinion surveys and labor, housing and other financial indicators to announce that, "Recession seen ending in third quarter." The third quarter.

But what do these sources know about it anyway? That is why, when making my own assessments on the state of the economy, I look to the single most important economic indicator I know of: my Dad. He works in the construction trades; his current report: busy with a forecast of more busy.

So why do I still feel panicky? I mean, I am no longer in the throws of a Great Crisis of Panic. I do believe that people believe that things are bouncing back. I believe that that belief is in itself is a self-fulfilling prophesy. And I really believe that in that far-off make-believe world of reality things really.... really, are not that bad. And in that make believe world of reality, the economy and its recession are really little more than an actualized collection of our own beliefs anyway. Okay, with that last part, I've now confused myself too.

To get tangible, I present you with Exhibit A (strictly hearsay): Partners of a corporate finance law practice call attorneys into a meeting. Lower level attorneys are instructed not to discuss things like a lack of work, especially to clients. They say that bankers are still feeling panicky (apparently I am not alone) and the worst thing to do would be to present them with evidence to support that panic. New forecast: sunny skies.


I've recently come across a phrase that's new to me: THE NEW NORMAL. I still have no idea what this phrase means (possibly different things to different people?) so I have some reading to catch up on. I first read about it in this Blog which seems to get at some ideas of more of the same, fake work and the such. I'm not sure yet, but I suspect that this New Normal might be at the root cause of my same old panic.